Myles Allen: Embracing Uncertainty
"Compulsory reading," writes Myles Allen of the new book A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming by Paul Edwards.
Allen heads the Climate Dynamics group at University of Oxford and founded climateprediction.net, which uses distributed computing to run and test climate models.
From Allen's book review ("Embracing an uncertain future"), published in Nature (sub. req.):
Over the coming decade, systems for forecasting climate that treat uncertainty as an additional prognostic variable will become the norm. The notion of a single 'flagship' climate model, which for a given set of initial conditions simulates a single climate trajectory, will look increasingly anachronistic. Forecasts may converge, but only on the same range of uncertainty, which users will still have to live with. Our aim in climate modelling should be to convert unknown unknowns into known unknowns, not to pretend that we can eliminate them altogether.
From the accompanying Nature editorial ("A question of trust"):
As the recent controversies have made abundantly clear, individual researchers must learn to see themselves as public figures and honest brokers. … More generally, scientists, institutions and funding agencies must increase transparency wherever possible. When engaging the public, the kind of uncertainties and internal debates that scientists struggle with on a daily basis should be played up, not down.
See also Noel Castree's review of A Vast Machine in American Scientist ("How We Make Knowledge About Climate Change").
