Charles Kennel: Globally, Regionally, Locally | Issues in Science and Technology
From the article, "Climate Change Think Globally, Assess Regionally, Act Locally," by Charles F. Kennel, director of the Environment and Sustainability Initiative at UC San Diego.
Climate change is here to stay. No matter how effectively governments and the private sector limit greenhouse gas emissions, average global temperatures will rise during the next several decades. Scientists know less well how climate change effects will be manifested regionally. And this information is critical because each region will have to decide how to adapt to change. ...
A sea change in public opinion is also in progress. People no longer focus exclusively on whether humans are responsible for climate change. The more pressing and practical question is how the world can adapt to the inevitable consequences of climate change and mitigate the most undesirable ones. The answers to those questions depend on where one is living.
Not only will climate change affect each community differently, but each community has a unique combination of environmental, economic, and social factors and its own ways of reaching decisions. Each community will have to decide how it can respond, so each needs information about how, when, and where climate change will affect the specific things it cares about. ...
Global climate models have met the highest standards of scientific rigor, but there is a new need to extend that effort to create a worldwide mosaic of regional impact assessments that link the global assessment process to local decisionmaking. ...
It is clear, however, that the world must not wait for the creation of the perfect framework. It is by far preferable to learn by doing. Ideally, the framework will be an emergent property of a network of already active regional assessments that connect global assessments to local decisionmaking.
A good place to start is the critical issue of water. The effects of climate on water must be understood before turning to agriculture and ecosystems. The capacity to model and monitor exists, and it can be translated relatively easily. The path from assessment to decision support to adaptive management has been reasonably well charted. All parties now need to do all they can to launch assessments of the climate/water interface in every region of the world.
