Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy | McKinsey
Our analysis finds that there is potential by 2030 to reduce GHG emissions by 35 percent compared with 1990 levels. ... This would be sufficient to have a good chance of holding global warming below the 2 degrees Celsius threshold, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ...
What would such an effort cost? We find that, if the most economically rational abatement opportunities are pursued to their full potential - clearly an optimistic assumption - the total worldwide cost could be €200 to 350 billion annually by 2030. This is less than 1 percent of forecasted global GDP in 2030, although the actual effect on GDP of such abatement efforts is a more complex matter that depends, among other things, on the financing of such abatement efforts. Turning to financing, the total upfront investment in abatement measures needed would be €530 billion in 2020 per year or €810 billion per year in 2030 - incremental to business-as-usual (BAU) investments. This corresponds to 5 to 6 percent of BAU investments in fixed assets in each respective year. As such, the investment required seems to be within the long-term capacity of global financial markets (as long as the current credit squeeze doesn't have significant consequences in this time horizon). Indeed, many of the opportunities would seen future energy savings largely compensate for upfront investments.
